London,20May(Argus)—ChileancopperagencyCochilcohassignificantlyincreaseditspriceforecastsforthisyearonexpectationsofashort-termdeficitintheglobalmarket.
Cochilcoraiseditsaveragecopperpriceprojectionto4.30/lbfor,upfromaforecastof3.30/lbthatwasmadeinJanuary.
Theaveragepriceforcoppernextyearisforecastatabout3.95/lb,upfrompreviousestimationsof3.00/lb.
Anexpectedsupplydeficitintheshortterm,alongwithreducedinventoriesinmetalexchanges,willprovidefundamentalpricesupport,Cochilcoexecutivevice-presidentMarcoRiverossaid.Bytheendof,therefinedcoppermarketisexpectedtobeinadeficitof,t,whileattheendofasurplusof46,tisforecast.
"Themacroeconomicscenario[fortherestof]ofthemaincopper-consumingeconomiesispositiveforthedemandofthemetal.ThedepreciationoftheUSdollarconsolidatesdownwardsaftertheriseinunemploymentintheUSduringMarchandfiscalpoliciesandexpansivemonetarypolicies,"Riverossaid.
"Ontheotherhand,theglobalsupplyofconcentratesofcopperremainslow,whichhasledtotreatmentchargesandrefiningtominimallevels.WhileChinawouldcontinuetodrivethedemand,thegrowthofrefinedcopperimportswouldtendtobemoderateduring."
Demandforrefinedcopperthisyearisexpectedtototal24.2mnt,a3.4pcriseondemandin,ascountriesex-Chinarecoverfromlostconsumptionlastyear.Afurtherriseisexpectedin,withrefineddemandincreasingby3.8pcfromsforecastto25.1mnt.
Globalminedcopperproductionisanticipatedtogrowby2pconanannualbasisthisyear,to21mnt,becauseofawidespreadrecoveryintheleadingcopper-producingcountries.InChile,outputisprojectedtoincreaseby1.8pcontheyearto5.8mnt.
Butthereareriskfactorsthatcouldproducepricevolatility,suchasanuncontrolledincreaseinthenumberofCovid-19infectionsevidentinIndiarecentlyandapotentialinflationriskinChina,Riverossaid.
ChileandPeru—thetwoleadingminedcopperproducers—arestilltryingtoover
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